Since the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A in 2019, the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir holds enough significance for every political outfit.
While the National Conference wants to prove itself as the oldest outfit, PDP is keen to showcase that people are still with the Muftis despite an aberration in 2014 when it formed an unusual coalition with the BJP. The BJP, which is finding it tough to field candidates in the Valley, wants to project that the larger mandate is for ‘New Kashmir’ which chooses development over extremism. Such is the enigma of this election that at least four members of the banned Jamat are considering fighting as independents.
In the 90-seat assembly election, the BJP is likely to field 60-70 candidates leaving the Valley where it will back strong and like-minded independents, say sources. After four lists, the party has announced a total of 51 names so far. So, what makes the BJP confident despite leaving 20-30 seats uncontested?
It turns out that the BJP is betting big on a former J&K government employee-turned-politician whom the Centre has imprisoned in Delhi’s Tihar Jail in connection with a terror funding case.
Sheikh Abdul Rashid, better known as Engineer Rashid’s, spectacular victory crushing former chief minister Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference leader Sajjad Lone from Baramulla seat this Lok Sabha election by getting 4,72,481 votes, has made him a force to watch for this assembly election. His Awami Ittehad Party has finalised 18 candidates so far and plans to announce a total of 35-40 across North Kashmir — Rashid’s main base — and Central Kashmir.
“I can’t give you the exact number of candidates we will field in total as the political affairs committee is seized of the matter. It is their prerogative. But it can go up to 35 to 40,” Firdous Baba, chief spokesperson of AIP, told News18.
BJP hopes that Engineer’s version of democracy, which seems to resonate with the people of North Kashmir, will divide votes among AIP, National Conference-Congress alliance and the PDP, making it easy for the saffron party.
Even in South Kashmir areas like Pulwama, Tral, Zainapora in Shopian, and Anantnag, residents would often boycott voting and in many cases, pockets would see substantial low turnout. Boycott calls by Hurriyat Conference would resonate in these seats as it did in the 2014 election when the late Syed Ali Shah Geelani made such an appeal.
Engineer Rashid’s strand of politics appears to resonate here apart from the 30 seats of North and Central Kashmir where people are tired of both the available options — NC and PDP. If Rashid’s party puts up a good fight and retains its Baramulla track record in a few North and Central Kashmir seats, it would very well end up being a hung assembly once again — leaving BJP with the choice of post-poll alliance bargains or the option to repeat President’s Rule once again.
“This is the propaganda of our opponents and nothing else. They can’t digest our win. People are more inclined to our brand of politics which traditional parties (NC and PDP) can’t accept. First, they call us secessionist, Islamic radicals or accuse us of harbouring separatist ideology. When that argument failed, they attached the BJP’s tag to us. They should introspect. Both NC and PDP have been in alliance with the BJP. If anyone has the moral authority to comment against BJP in Jammu and Kashmir, it’s us. We are the flag bearers of anti-BJP ideology in the Valley,” Baba told News18.
While he may be factually right about both NC and PDP cosying up to the BJP separately in the past, and the Valley’s residents talking about a new political option where Rashid is seen as someone who sacrificed his crucial years for the people of Kashmir, the electoral outcome — if it goes as speculated — is bound to help BJP.
In 2014, of 46 seats in the Valley, 25 went to PDP and 12 to NC while Congress managed only four, leaving the rest for independents. Among the three districts that constitute Engineer’s core area — North Kashmir — Kupwara, Bandipora and Baramulla’s 15 assembly seats, PDP and NC won 10 seats. In Central Kashmir’s Srinagar, Bugdam, and Ganderbal’s 15 assembly seats, NC and PDP won 14 seats. The wins in these areas pumped up the total tally of PDP to 28 and NC to 15. Now, the BJP hopes that AIP will make a significant dent in the traditional J&K parties in these six districts which will restrict their total tally.
News 18 English
