Early Bloom Likely, Heat May Accelerate Early Glacier Melt
The ongoing dry phase across Jammu & Kashmir shows no signs of rain or snowfall for the remainder of the month. This is likely to result in a substantial rainfall deficit, further deepening seasonal precipitation shortfalls.
Day temperatures are expected to stay consistently above normal, and if the ongoing warm spell intensifies, a few temperature records may also be challenged. Such warmth in late winter is already setting the stage for early blooming of trees across several areas.
However, early bloom under prolonged warmth carries risks. The atmosphere still retains the potential to revert to colder conditions if fresh Western Disturbances impact the region during March. A sudden cold spell or late frost during the blossom phase could lead to damage to flowers and fruit-bearing trees, impacting horticulture.
Additionally, elevated temperatures may accelerate glacier and snowpack melting, temporarily increasing discharge in rivers and springs. While this may raise water levels in the short term, any continued dry conditions into March could adversely affect paddy cultivation, especially if river and spring discharge weakens during the crucial pre-sowing phase.
Forecast Insights: Kashmir Weather
